According to eight economists at the latest AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel, the slight increase in construction expenditure for nonresidential projects in 2019 should see more increases in 2020 and 2021 despite the recent slowdown. According to economists, the sector will see a slight increase of 1.5% in 2020 and 0.9% in 2021. There should be no downturns as well, as the economists claim on the slowdown in growth rates for the sector.
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Economists Predict Rises in Nonresidential Construction in 2020 and 2021
According to the AIA panelists, public safety, healthcare, office, and education are bright points of the sector with great potential in terms of growth. In 2020, it is expected to see a major rise of 7.2% in the public safety sector in 2020. After the public sector as the fastest-growing sector, education should see growth by 3.9. healthcare and office should rise by 3.4% and 3%. Economists are also mentioning sectors that should see decreases and setbacks in growth in the same year, including amusement and recreational construction, hotels, retail and religious facilities.
Can Nonresidential Construction Surprise the Forecasters?
The year 2019 for nonresidential construction was predicted to underperform with a double-digit percentage in declines. That case didn’t take place. Moreover, nonresidential construction had even seen a modest increase followed up with modestly positive predictions for some nonresidential sectors in 2020 and 2021. Economists suggest that the scenario could repeat for 2020 and 2021, considering the case where modest predictions for nonresidential construction might turn into more positive forecasts. The Consensus Construction Forecast panel expects to see similar conditions in 2020 and 2021 despite evident setbacks.
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